Reflections 2016: Matt Warman – Our job to seize the opportunities we have with vigour
Christmas is a time to reflect on the year both politically and personally, and 2016 is a year that demands rather more than a few hundred words. Whole books have already been written about Brexit, the ascent of Donald Trump and of course about both David Cameron and Theresa May. It’s trite to suggest that…
Christmas is a time to reflect on the year both politically and personally, and 2016 is a year that demands rather more than a few hundred words. Whole books have already been written about Brexit, the ascent of Donald Trump and of course about both David Cameron and Theresa May.
It’s trite to suggest that both US and UK politics were simply seeing different expressions of the same problems, but it is equally daft to pretend there’s nothing in common.
As we look back it seems likely to me that those who suggest President-elect Trump will be a disaster for the whole world are the successors of those who said that the actor Ronald Reagan was never going to run a country.
Reagan, of course, turned out to be just the Cold War President the world needed, elected in part as a reaction to changing global trends that were affecting Americans at home. He was a President working with an unprecedentedly popular British Prime Minister.
It is, of course, coincidental that the last time there was a Conservative by-election win as big as that we have just seen in Sleaford and North Hykeham it was during the Falklands.
Brexit, meanwhile, attracts just as many naysayers as Mr Trump. Soon the country turns the corner into the year in which we will trigger Article 50 and finally put to bed those fears expressed by some that leaving the EU may not actually happen.
It might finally also put an end to those foolish enough to think the solution to a first referendum result they didn’t like is simply a second vote. Going down that path both undermines democracy itself, and ignores the fact that the referendum of 2016 yielded the result it did because both Brussels and British Europhiles failed to make a convincing case not over weeks of the campaign, but over whole preceding decades.
Locally, 2016 was also the year Lincolnshire said no devolution: this in my view is a multi-billion pound mistake the consequences of which we will live with for years to come.
As neighbouring Cambridgeshire presses ahead with spending the consequent new money, Lincolnshire will struggle with the ongoing under-investment that has blighted local infrastructure in particular.
Eight out of 10 councils voted for devolution, including both Boston Borough and East Lindsey District – it would be perverse if the democratically expressed will of those councils was frustrated by others, and I hope to do all I can to push for greater investment in the area I have the privilege to represent.
It’s been a year Boston has pushed ahead with the much-needed flood barrier, seen broadband speeds improve significantly (on average), when Skegness’ economy has seen further rises in tourist numbers and when our farmers have continued to grow the best vegetables in the country.
There is much to be optimistic about – and at Christmas it’s also a time to consider that the job of politicians is to grapple both with all the challenges we face and to seize the opportunities with equal vigour.
It’s a thrilling prospect, and I look forward to discussing it with many of you in the New Year.
New Year’s resolutions
Personal
I recently joined the annual President’s Day rugby match at Boston Rugby Club, which reminded me how much I enjoy the sport, so I would like to try and play more often next year, and take up more sport in general in my spare time.
Professional
2017 will be an important year for politics, when we start to negotiate our exit from the EU, so I want to keep doing my best to make sure that government ministers know they must fight for the best possible Brexit deal for Lincolnshire, and also ensure that Boston and Skegness’ roads, infrastructure and NHS are at the front of their minds.
Matt Warman is the Conservative MP for the Boston and Skegness constituency.
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The Lincolnite welcomes your views. All comments are reactively-moderated and must obey the house rules. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers.
This week there have been 1,940 positive cases of COVID-19 and 116 deaths in Greater Lincolnshire, as the region moves towards tier 3 restrictions next week.
Some 396 coronavirus cases and 27 COVID-related deaths were reported in Greater Lincolnshire on Friday.
The government’s COVID-19 dashboard recorded 286 new cases in Lincolnshire, 65 in North Lincolnshire and 45 in North East Lincolnshire, bringing the total number of cases in North East Lincolnshire to over 5,000 since the start of the pandemic.
It also registered 19 deaths in Lincolnshire, six in North Lincolnshire and two in North East Lincolnshire. These figures include deaths both in and out of hospitals as well as residents in hospitals outside the county. Deaths have now surpassed 800 since the pandemic began in Greater Lincolnshire.
NHS England also reported 13 new hospital deaths on Friday. Seven were at Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS Foundation Trust, five at United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust and one in Lincolnshire Community Health Service hospitals. This takes the total number of hospital deaths in the county to 513.
On Friday, national cases increased by 16,022 to 1,589,301, while deaths rose by 521 to 57,551.
Lincolnshire cases up to November 27 (November 26 incomplete).
Meanwhile, Lincolnshire health bosses are in discussions with the government about a new COVID-19 testing centre in Skegness. East Lindsey has the fourth highest infection rate in England. The exact location has not yet been confirmed for the testing centre.
In national news, the UK’s R number has fallen to between 0.9 and 1 according to scientists. This means for every 10 people with coronavirus, they will go on to infect between nine and 10 people, suggesting the rate of infection is slowing nationally.
In Lincolnshire, the infection rate has already dropped on Thursday’s figures.
The region’s infection rates are dropping. | Data: GOV UK / Table: The Lincolnite
Coronavirus data for Greater Lincolnshire for Friday, November 27
25,427 cases (up 396)
15,770 in Lincolnshire (up 286)
4,619 in North Lincolnshire (up 65)
5,038 in North East Lincolnshire (up 45)
825 deaths (up 27)
541 from Lincolnshire (up 19)
142 from North Lincolnshire (up six)
142 from North East Lincolnshire (up two)
of which 513 hospital deaths (up 13)
271 at United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust (up five)
11 at Lincolnshire Community Health Service hospitals (up one)
1 at Lincolnshire Partnership Foundation Trust (no change)
230 in Northern Lincolnshire (NLAG) (up seven)
1,589,301 UK cases, 57,551 deaths
DATA SOURCE — FIGURES CORRECT AT THE TIME OF the latest update. postcode data includes deaths not in healthcare facilities or in hospitals outside authority boundaries.
Lincolnshire County Council’s director of public health Professor Derek Ward said the government had used data from the peak of the county’s coronavirus infection between November 17-19 to make its decision, but that the latest figures already showed a massive improvement.
Professor Ward said people followed the rules, despite the peak in cases in the middle of November.
The government uses five key indicators make its decision and Professor Ward was confident the downward trend would continue.
The region’s infection rates are dropping. | Data: GOV UK / Table: The Lincolnite
Case detection rates in all age groups
Up to November 24, Lincolnshire’s infection rate was 232, compared to the England average of 209, said Professor Derek Ward.
Between November 17-19, the infection rate peaked at 308 — a difference of 76.
This is the figure that has been used the longest in determining the rate of coronavirus spread.
To improve this, Professor Ward said the usual messages of hands, face and space applied.
“It’s about trying to make sure people don’t catch COVID in the first place,” he said.
“So make sure you wash your hands for 20 seconds, make sure if you’re going into an enclosed space, or indeed, if you feel you’re walking through a busy street, that you’re covering the face, and keep at least two metres at all times from anybody outside your household.”
Case detection rates in the over 60s
For this more specific number, the current figure is 326 per 100,000 population, up from 281 in mid-November.
“The reason that’s important is because we know this is a disease that targets older people,” said Professor Ward.
“Older people are more likely to have a more severe form of the disease and they are therefore more likely to need NHS or hospital treatment, and more likely to die from it.”
In addition to hands, face and space, the key thing was for anyone who has symptoms to get a test “immediately”.
A map of Lincolnshire showing the seven-day coronavirus rates as of November 25. | Map: GOV UK
He said anecdotal evidence showed younger people might not get tested despite mild symptoms, but were then visiting relatives and possibly passing it on.
“Anybody who has any symptoms, no matter how mild, you must immediately isolate, don’t go for one last shop, don’t go for one last visit to your mum or dad.
“You can do a lot of stuff remotely, you can do it online, you can book shopping.
“There’s also support out there for anyone struggling,” he said.
The rate at which cases are rising or falling
This is a new indicator and health bosses did not have specific information to compare with government, however, Professor Ward said “overall our rates are clearly reducing.”
“‘It’s more a direction of travel than an actual figure,” said Professor Ward.
“Between November 17-19 we had the highest rates, and it’s been on a downward trajectory since then.”
He said he was expecting the trend to continue, especially considering the typical two-three week delay for the impact of the latest lockdown.
Positivity rate (positive cases as a percentage of tests taken)
Lincolnshire’s current positivity rate is 8.4%, down from around 12% at the most recent peak.
Around 25,000 tests have been carried out a week since early October, meaning around 2,100 positive tests a week compared to 3,000 previously.
However, health bosses do not want people to stop getting tests, in fact they want more to do so.
The criteria looks at percentage of positive tests rather than number carried out. Hence, if more people get tested and come back negative the positivity rate goes down.
| Photo: Steve Smailes for The Lincolnite
“The key thing that I want the people to do is if they’ve got any symptoms, no matter how mild, isolate themselves, get themselves a test,” said Professor Ward.
“The reason [government] are interested in this is that it’s a good indicator of two things. One, are you doing enough tests and two, are you targeting them?
“It’s really just giving us an indication of are we doing enough tests. If it’s going up, and it’s going up quite quickly, that’s when there’s a concern that we’re seeing an increase in actual community based infections.
“It’s coming down in Lincolnshire.”
Pressure on the NHS
United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust bosses have confirmed they currently have 233 COVID patients and are using 74% of their hospital capacity.
The number has been steadily rising over the past month or so — on October 23 it has some 80 patients.
A ULHT spokesperson: “To help keep the pressure off of Lincolnshire’s hospitals so we can continue to deliver the best care to our patients, we would ask the public to please follow the latest government guidelines.”
However, bosses say the key message is that the NHS remains open and that people should continue to attend if they need it or if they have an appoointment booked.
Boston Pilgrim Hospital and Lincoln County Hospital.
The trust has not yet had to close its COVID-free site in Grantham, which other areas have chosen to do.
Professor Ward said there was no intention to discourage people from using their facilities.
“If people need the NHS, it is there for them whether it’s a very life-threatening 999 condition, or whether you just need a bit of advice and support, in which case NHS 111 online is your first port of call.
“Everything is still still open and available. Just consider whether you need it and if you’re not sure, check online or give them a ring.”
In conclusion, what can people do differently to help?
“I’m not sure it is doing anything differently,” said Professor Ward.
“It’s more of the same because we are seeing the benefits of people in Lincolnshire sticking by the rules.
“We just want them to keep doing that — it comes back to the same messages hands, face, space, minimise travelling if you can, work from home and minimise your contact with other people.
“That’s how we’ll bring the rates right down and then hopefully, we’ll be in a different position in the middle of December.”
The new tier allocations will be reviewed every two weeks from December 2.
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