May 30, 2022 3.00 pm

Conservative MPs to lose Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe, poll claims

Lincoln is predicted to swing 19 points to Labour

By Local Democracy Reporter

Conservative MPs will lose Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe in the next election, a poll claims.

Research by YouGov shows most of the Blue Wall would crumble, with dozens of seats returning to Labour.

Of the 88 battleground seats which the Tories captured in the 2019 election or held by a narrow margin, Labour are on track to take all but three of them, including those in Lincolnshire.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson would also be likely to lose his own seat.

The newly-released poll saw more than 15,000 people interviewed in May.

In Lincoln, where Karl McCartney triumphed by seven points in the last election, Labour are on track to win by 12 points.

The northern Lincolnshire seats of Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe would also likely see big swings away from the Conservatives, but could still come down to the wire.

Lia Nici won Grimsby by 22 points in 2019, but would lose by a single point today.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson meeting with several Lincolnshire MPs, who the polls make worrying reading for. | Photo: Karl McCartney/Twitter

Holly Mumby-Croft, who took Scunthorpe by 17 points, would also be set to lose her seat by a similar margin.

However, Labour’s narrow lead means it is impossible to predict with any certainty what would happen in those seats.

Just three constituencies which Conservatives have a tenuous grasp on would remain blue, according to the poll: Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Dudley North.

The poll says Labour also currently holds a five point lead in Boris Johnson’s own constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

All other Lincolnshire seats are considered to be safe Conservative seats, and unlikely to change hands.

YouGov says its method of polling correctly predicted the outcome of the 2017 and 2019 general elections.

See the full results of the YouGov poll here.

The next general election is required to happen by January 2025 at the latest.

The timing of the poll may also have influenced the results, coming a week after the government was criticised for a series of lockdown-breaking parties.

A total of 126 fixed penalty notices were issued to 83 different people.

The government is hoping to change course with emergency measures to deal with the cost of living crisis, including a £400 discount on energy bills.