George Smid

By George Smid georgesmid

Last week the talks between the UK and European Union taught us a lot about Brexit: the Brits do not need any negotiating notes, we’ll pay a divorce bill, we know a lot of detail about Euratom.

We also know that the public is as divided as ever. And we see that ‘Brexit means Brexit’ looks more and more like staying in the EU: immigration, EU laws, agricultural subsidies, access of EU fishing fleets, customs union and the single market will continue after Brexit.

Or continue they will not. Depends on who you listen to. Take the ever-returning question of single market and customs union. “The EU could create a free trade deal with the UK tomorrow if they wanted” Gainsborough Conservative MP Sir Edward Leigh claimed.

In contrast, another Conservative Lincolnshire MP, Nick Boles, says we cannot have it tomorrow, but “we need a three year transition”.

Sir Edward’s position seems to be: “The EU giveth and the EU taketh”. UK active participation is reduced to accept what is on offer or walk away.

By contrast, Nick Boles suggests leaving the EU but not yet. We will “start our new life as a fully independent nation” in March 2022.

Both opinions reflect the fact that we voted for Brexit, but don’t have a plan of what we want. The concept of signing no-tariffs, free trade agreements across the whole world is bonkers.

No country has it and even if we somehow managed it, how long would the Trump administration allow the UK to re-export tariff free cheap Chinese steel to the US, also tariff free? How long before France would block ‘zero tariff’ Australian lamb entering the EU markets?

Without a plan we cannot do cost-benefit analysis of how much we will gain and what we will lose through Brexit.

And perhaps we do not have time to do it now anyway: March 2019 might be 19 months away, deduct three months for ratification, two months for lawyers to draft the agreement, summer recess, Christmas breaks and you have 12 months at most to reach an agreement.

The UK must come up with a firm plan for Brexit fast. Now.

Otherwise, with no agreement even within the government, it looks increasingly likely that by March 2019 we will either stay in
(concealed as an adjustment period) or we will leave altogether with no agreement.

How can we decide which is the best deal for Britain?

Easy. Do Brexit now. Hard, Full Monty Brexit. Stop speculating about the queues of lorries at Dover after Brexit.

Search each lorry now for 30 minutes (or whatever it takes to carry border checks).

Then we will see how fast the queues will form and how long they will be. Ditto for passenger controls at airports and borders. Close the Irish border.

The incoming holiday season gives us the best time to test the impact of withdrawal from the EU open skies deal.

Will we manage without EU workers? Ask each employer to give every EU employee three weeks of holidays and send the workers home.

Importers can put up prices by 15% for a month… and then report on the results of each action.

Any issue in Brexit negotiations, be it access to the EU markets, supply chains, even Euro clearing system, can be suspended for a time.

The tests will end the arguments – we will not speculate what ‘might’ happen.

We will know what has happened. Before an EU summit in late October our testing will be completed and we will know what is the best: #Brexit or #noBrexit.

George Smid is chair of the European Movement East Midlands.

By George Smid georgesmid

One year ago today, 17.4 million voters (out of 46.5 million) won the referendum to leave the European Union. This month the UK started with the negotiations. The difference between June 2016 and 2017 is staggering.

On June 24, 2016 the Leavers were jubilant. The country bought their vision, and all the scare stories predicted by Remainers did not happen. The future was bright and rosy. Theresa May was to unite the nation.

In June 2017 the future is anything but bright and rosy.

The country is more divided than any time in post-war history. There is no plan for Brexit, no effective government to deliver, no consensus for compromise.

Brexit was not supposed to be like that. Leaving the EU was to solve all of our problems. Brexit was self-fulfilling and self-evident. The previous government formalised this view by pseudo-religious frenzy: Brexit is one and the only one, upon Brexit we trust. Amen.

The EU was also given the same God-like (or evil-like) treatment of unchangeable entity.

But the last 12 months showed how much EU changed: refugee crises, re-introduction of border controls (hardly mentioned in the British press), austerity backlash, Brexit, terrorist attacks, … Macron victory.

The EU of today is different from the EU of yesteryear. Only 18% of EU public would support their country leaving the EU now.

The Brexit vision also changed. Promises of a better life are out. We will not have £350 million per week for NHS. Immigration will not come down. We will not save any money by leaving and we will follow EU regulations, ECJ or not ECJ. (To be able to export.)

Two weeks ago, Michael Gove delivered the last in the long line of broken promises: post-Brexit food will not be cheaper.

Removing agricultural subsidies was to save us £400 per month. At least this last broken promise is welcome news for Lincolnshire farmers.

Despite the broken promises the discussion about the emerging facts was simply not allowed.

You don’t question God. “For there is only one Brexit, and only one mediator between Brexit and men, the Prime Minister Theresa May”. (Timothy 2:5, adapted).

The elections changed that. Brexit options are now discussed. People are aware of the benefits flowing from the EU. Nobody believes in ‘straight bananas’ EU regulations. Reduction in EU immigration did not lead to higher wages. Leaving the EU will not improve social care.

Research and science will not gain by Brexit, Brexit will not help schools. The red tape (EU or otherwise) is not the same bogey anymore, Grenfell Tower showed that regulations save lives.

The Chancellor accepted that British people ‘did not vote to become poorer, or less secure’.

The fact is that British people are poorer and less secure. The pound is down 30%, inflation up, living standards down.

We are living Brexit just now and it is not the milk and honey promised.

In reaction, we must now stop to treat Brexit as a religion. We must change our cognitive bias from emotional to rational. We must develop strategies.

Alas, instead of policies we just have umpteen Brexit adjectives: Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit, People’s Brexit, Business Brexit, Prosseco Brexit, Sensible Brexit, Crash Brexit, Transitional Brexit, No Brexit.

Let’s pause about the last one. Until recently to mention staying in the EU after March 2019 was a taboo and anathema. Now it is one of the two most likely results of Brexit negotiations: either staying in or crashing out.

We will crash out if Parliament is not able to agree a deal which is likely to happen: Eurosceptic MPs want ‘hard Brexit’, the Chancellor wants ‘business Brexit’.

Indeed, any grouping of more than nine MPs within the Tory-DUP coalition can block anything.

With no deal the UK will crash out of the EU by default.

To balance ‘crashing out’ we need to promote ‘staying in’.

The voices of ‘no-Brexit’ are just about being heard.

Within the Conservative Party there is Conservative Group for Europe whose active representative Dr Nicholas George lives in Lincolnshire.

Labour has Labour Movement for Europe.

What we need is a cross-party platform, such as European Movement UK.

The real challenge is to persuade the public. When the public perception changes, the MPs will follow – witness the conversion of 450 MPs from Remain to Leave.

Public views do change. The vote in June 2016 was to leave the EU of 2016 for the rosy future as seen in 2016.

In March 2019, we will be looking at the EU of 2019 and considering the future of 2019.

We might be ready to stay in the EU of 2019.

To help on that journey please contact Lincolnshire European Movement.

George Smid is chair of the European Movement East Midlands.