Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe predicted to turn Conservative at general election
The once strong Labour heartlands of Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe are at real risk of turning Conservative for the first time in generations, according to an expert in predicting general election results. Figures produced by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predict an overall majority for Theresa May and the Conservatives of 158, with their number of…
Labour MPs Melanie Onn (Great Grimsby) and Nic Dakin (Scunthorpe) face a battle with the Conservatives to retain their seats at the general election
The once strong Labour heartlands of Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe are at real risk of turning Conservative for the first time in generations, according to an expert in predicting general election results.
Figures produced by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predict an overall majority for Theresa May and the Conservatives of 158, with their number of seats increasing from 331 in 2015 to 404.
By contrast, the predictions are dismal for the Labour Party, with them forecast to lose 52 seats compared with their disappointing showing in 2015, falling to just 170, the lowest since the Second World War.
Great Grimsby, held by Labour since 1945, is one of the seats which has a strong chance of turning Conservative on June 8.
Current Labour MP Melanie Onn is defending a majority of 4,540, which is predicted to be wiped out, with the Conservatives narrowly winning by 601 votes.
Another once safe Labour seat, Scunthorpe, is also predicted to be won by the Conservatives.
The Labour Party has won every parliamentary election in the constituency since it was created in 1997.
However, Labour MP Nic Dakin is defending a majority of 3,134, well within the Conservatives’ sights if current polling plays out as expected next month.
Martin Baxter predicts that this seat could again turn Conservative, with a majority of 2,099.
The traditional bellwether seat of Lincoln, which has an elected an MP of the party in power since 1974, is expected to remain Conservative.
The oldest constituency in the UK, which was first established in 1265, has been represented by Conservative Karl McCartney since 2010, after 13 years under Labour.
McCartney is defending a slender majority of 1,443 from 2015.
However, this is predicted to increase significantly, rising to a comfortable 6,932.
Similarly, Boston and Skegness, which will attract the interest of national media following the announcement that UKIP leader Paul Nuttall will be the party’s candidate, is predicted to become an even safer Conservative seat.
Matt Warman, who has been the constituency’s MP since 2015, is defending a majority of 4,336 from UKIP.
However, again this is forecast to rise significantly, to a majority of 13,020.
The remaining seven Conservative-held seats in the Greater Lincolnshire region are also predicted to have larger Tory majorities.
Andrew Percy’s majority in Brigg and Goole is set to rise from 11,176 to 16,997
Martin Vickers in Cleethorpes is predicted to see his majority rise from 7,893 to 14,493
Veteran Gainsborough MP Sir Edward Leigh’s majority is predicted to rise from 15,449 to 22,194
Nick Boles, standing again in Grantham and Stamford after recovering from a brain tumour, is predicted to have an increased majority, from 18,989 to 26,610
Victoria Atkins, defending a majority of 14,977 in Louth and Horncastle, is predicted to have a majority of 24,105
Sleaford and North Hykeham, which had a Conservative majority of 24,115 in 2015, is set to elect Caroline Johnson with an estimated majority of 31,369
John Hayes in South Holland and the Deepings is predicted to see his majority rise from 18,567 to 28,264
Electoral Calculus is an independent website which provides analysis, comment and predictions of general elections, polls and democracy.
It is run by Martin Baxter, and is the longest-running predictor of UK general elections.
The figures quoted in this article are accurate as of May 3.
The predictor is not meant to definitively state what the results will be on June 8, but give an indication of what they are likely to be based on the data and information available at present.
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The 32-year-old man and 30-year-old woman arrested in the murder probe of an 11-year-old boy in Lincoln have both been released on police bail, without any charges.
The man was arrested on suspicion of murder and the woman on suspicion of manslaughter after an incident at a house on Geneva Street on St Giles in Lincoln.
Police were called to the house at 10pm on Friday night, January 22.
The 11-year-old boy was found unwell at the scene and was taken to hospital for treatment.
He was pronounced dead a short time later.
At the time Lincolnshire Police said the death was unexplained and it was treated as murder.
The man and the woman arrested at the weekend were released on police bail on Monday evening.
Lincolnshire Police said in a statement on Monday night:
“Once again, we’d like to remind people that this is an active investigation and that an 11-year-old boy has sadly lost his life.
“Speculative comments are not only deeply upsetting to those involved but can potentially undermine our investigation.
“If you have any information that can help, call 101 or email [email protected] quoting incident 472 of January 22.”
Ten people from Boston have been given fines for breaching COVID-19 regulations by driving dangerously in supermarket car parks.
Officers were called after three separate reports of dangerous driving in the car parks of Lidl and Tesco in Wyberton Fen, as well as on Marsh Lane Industrial Estate in Boston.
All three incidents took place and were reported to police between 5pm and 6pm on Sunday, January 24, though it is unsure if they were connected at all.
When officers arrived, the drivers were seen doing donut manoeuvres and racing in the snow.
A total of 10 people were given £200 fines for breaking lockdown guidelines, but this will be reduced to £100 if paid within 14 days, due to all being first time offenders.
As well as the COVID-19 fines, two of the vehicles were also seized as a result of being uninsured, with drivers reported.
A traffic offence report was also submitted after one driver was seen to be driving not just dangerously but out of control.
Inspector Fran Harrod of Lincolnshire Police said: “We would like to thank the public for bringing these incidents of dangerous driving to our attention.
“This is not only extremely dangerous to those taking part but to others in these areas.
“While we continue to engage and explain with the public, this was a blatant breach of the restrictions which will not be tolerated.”
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