May 3, 2017 11.02 am
This story is over 54 months old
Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe predicted to turn Conservative at general election
The once strong Labour heartlands of Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe are at real risk of turning Conservative for the first time in generations, according to an expert in predicting general election results. Figures produced by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predict an overall majority for Theresa May and the Conservatives of 158, with their number of…
Labour MPs Melanie Onn (Great Grimsby) and Nic Dakin (Scunthorpe) face a battle with the Conservatives to retain their seats at the general election
The once strong Labour heartlands of Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe are at real risk of turning Conservative for the first time in generations, according to an expert in predicting general election results.
Figures produced by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predict an overall majority for Theresa May and the Conservatives of 158, with their number of seats increasing from 331 in 2015 to 404.
By contrast, the predictions are dismal for the Labour Party, with them forecast to lose 52 seats compared with their disappointing showing in 2015, falling to just 170, the lowest since the Second World War.
Great Grimsby, held by Labour since 1945, is one of the seats which has a strong chance of turning Conservative on June 8.
Current Labour MP Melanie Onn is defending a majority of 4,540, which is predicted to be wiped out, with the Conservatives narrowly winning by 601 votes.
Another once safe Labour seat, Scunthorpe, is also predicted to be won by the Conservatives.
The Labour Party has won every parliamentary election in the constituency since it was created in 1997.
However, Labour MP Nic Dakin is defending a majority of 3,134, well within the Conservatives’ sights if current polling plays out as expected next month.
Martin Baxter predicts that this seat could again turn Conservative, with a majority of 2,099.
The traditional bellwether seat of Lincoln, which has an elected an MP of the party in power since 1974, is expected to remain Conservative.
The oldest constituency in the UK, which was first established in 1265, has been represented by Conservative Karl McCartney since 2010, after 13 years under Labour.
McCartney is defending a slender majority of 1,443 from 2015.
However, this is predicted to increase significantly, rising to a comfortable 6,932.
Similarly, Boston and Skegness, which will attract the interest of national media following the announcement that UKIP leader Paul Nuttall will be the party’s candidate, is predicted to become an even safer Conservative seat.
Matt Warman, who has been the constituency’s MP since 2015, is defending a majority of 4,336 from UKIP.
However, again this is forecast to rise significantly, to a majority of 13,020.
The remaining seven Conservative-held seats in the Greater Lincolnshire region are also predicted to have larger Tory majorities.
Andrew Percy’s majority in Brigg and Goole is set to rise from 11,176 to 16,997
Martin Vickers in Cleethorpes is predicted to see his majority rise from 7,893 to 14,493
Veteran Gainsborough MP Sir Edward Leigh’s majority is predicted to rise from 15,449 to 22,194
Nick Boles, standing again in Grantham and Stamford after recovering from a brain tumour, is predicted to have an increased majority, from 18,989 to 26,610
Victoria Atkins, defending a majority of 14,977 in Louth and Horncastle, is predicted to have a majority of 24,105
Sleaford and North Hykeham, which had a Conservative majority of 24,115 in 2015, is set to elect Caroline Johnson with an estimated majority of 31,369
John Hayes in South Holland and the Deepings is predicted to see his majority rise from 18,567 to 28,264
Electoral Calculus is an independent website which provides analysis, comment and predictions of general elections, polls and democracy.
It is run by Martin Baxter, and is the longest-running predictor of UK general elections.
The figures quoted in this article are accurate as of May 3.
The predictor is not meant to definitively state what the results will be on June 8, but give an indication of what they are likely to be based on the data and information available at present.
The Lincolnite welcomes your views. All comments are reactively-moderated and must obey the house rules. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers.
The Lincolnite welcomes your views. All comments are reactively-moderated and must obey the house rules. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers.
From 4am on Tuesday, December 7, anyone wishing to travel to the UK must show proof of a negative PCR or LFD pre-departure test, taken no earlier than 48 hours before departure. This applies to vaccinated passengers and children aged 12 and above.
Nigeria will slo be added to the travel red list from 4am Monday, December 6, following 21 cases of Omicron reported in England which are linked to travel from this country, with 134 UK cases now reported in total.
New Government analysis indicates the window between infection and infectiousness may be shorter for the Omicron COVID variant, which increases the efficacy of pre-departure testing as it is more likely to identify positive cases before travel.
Airlines will be required to check for pre-departure tests alongside completed Passenger Locator Form, and passengers will not be allowed to board a flight without providing evidence of a negative test result.
Given the reduced incubation period of the Omicron variant, passengers are advised to take the pre-departure test as close as possible to their scheduled departure to the UK and no earlier than 48 hours before travelling.
The Government said these additional measures are vital to delay the import of additional cases and slow the rise in cases within the UK.
All temporary measures will be reviewed after three weeks to ensure that they remain necessary and proportionate, and this will take place on December 20.
Animal Protection Services is offering a reward of up to £1,000 for information leading to the identification, arrest, and conviction of people involved in badger baiting following an incident in Lincolnshire.
A badger was rescued by Lincolnshire Badger Group from a warehouse in Market Rasen, which had suffered injuries that were consistent with badger baiting.
Badger baiting is a form of blood sport that involves a dog being forced to fight with a badger.
Unfortunately, due the serious injuries sustained, the vet was forced to euthanise the badger.
Jacob Lloyd, a trustee of Animal Protection Services, said: “Badger baiting is a horrific cruel blood sport that affects the welfare of dogs and badgers.
“These wild animals will suffer immensely in the moments’ leading up to their deaths.
“This is a despicable crime that was made illegal in 1835. Despite it being illegal, we are hearing of more badger baiting cases than ever before.”
“We are offering a reward of up to £1,000 for information leading to a conviction of badger baiting.
“All of the information that is provided to us will be treated in the strictest confidence and any source may wish to remain anonymous.”
Anyone with information should call Animal Protection Services on 020 4534 2786 or send information by email to [email protected].
Whatsapp
