December 11, 2019 3.34 pm This story is over 51 months old

Latest poll: Labour set to lose Grimsby and Scunthorpe, Lincoln will be tight

It will all be to play for Labour
Labour's Melanie Onn (Grimsby), Nic Dakin (Scunthoope) and Karen Lee (Lincoln).

The Conservatives are tipped to gain seats in Grimsby and Scunthorpe after decades of them being Labour safe seats, while Lincoln will be one of the closest fought marginals in the country.

The latest YouGov poll (via Financial Times) indicates that Labour is on course to lose its historically safe seats in Grimsby and Scunthorpe — though as with most polls, the differences are within the margin of error.

Both towns have suffered in the past decade with unemployment and deprivation and were strongly in favour of Brexit.

The latest YouGov poll shows Labour could lose their safe seats in Scunthorpe and Grimsby. Graphic via Financial Times

Great Grimsby Labour candidate Melanie Onn could lose her seat to Conservative candidate Lia Nici. In 2017 she only had a 2,565 votes majority from a turnout of 35,521 people.

Grimsby was a Labour stronghold since 1945.

In Scunthorpe, Labour’s Nic Dakin will be fending off Conservatives’ Holly Mumby-Croft. He had a 3,134 majority over Conservatives in 2017, out of a 36,941 turnout.

Since it became its own constituency in 1997, Scunthorpe has been a Labour safe seat. Previously it was lumped with Glanford and Brigg constituencies, and alternated between the Conservatives and Labour.

Meanwhile in Lincoln, a tight race will be held, as it’s tipped to be one of the top 10 hotly contested constituencies in the country.

Conservative Karl McCartney is hoping to regain his seat after losing to Labour’s Karen Lee in 2017 by 1,538 votes.

Pollster YouGov indicates a very tight race in Lincoln. Graphic via Financial Times

Across the rest of the Lincolnshire constituencies, Conservatives are expected to retain their seats, where they enjoy very comfortable majorities.

Nationally, the poll shows the Conservative party is on course to win the election, but the projected majority of 28 is down as much as 40 seats from an earlier survey.

The poll of polls show the Conservatives are in for a victory, but a hung Parliament is still possible.

However, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell told the BBC this morning: “We are in the margin of errors now about ensuring Boris Johnson is not in government, and I think we are in striking distance of a Labour government. It will all be to play for tomorrow.”

Rise in voter registration

More than 787,046 people across Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire have registered to vote for the 2019 General Election on Thursday, compared to 779,618 in 2017 — and extra 7,428 people.

In fact, the number increased in all but three electoral areas – the Conservative strongholds of South Holland, South Kesteven and Brigg and Goole.

In Lincoln 74,778 people have registered to vote across the city for Thursday’s election compared to 73,111 in 2017 —  1,667 extra registered voters.

The greatest rise in voter numbers in Lincolnshire took place in Sleaford and North Hykeham, which saw an extra 3,834 people register ahead of the election.

The largest decrease was in the South Holland and Deepings ward, which saw 646 people drop off the electoral register.

Lincolnshire Reporter and The Lincolnite will bring you live coverage of the results in the city and across Greater Lincolnshire on Thursday night.