March 30, 2023 5.00 pm This story is over 15 months old

Labour predicted to retake lost Lincolnshire seats in election forecast

Even ‘safe’ Tory seats might not be safe

Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe would return to Labour if a general election was held today, according to polling experts.

The party could also come close to unseating Conservatives in some of their Lincolnshire strongholds.

Although the local council elections in May will be the next time that voters go to the poll, attention is already turning to the national elections next year.

The forecast by ElectionMaps.uk, the UK’s largest polling collator, gives Labour a comfortable margin of victory in the Lincolnshire seats which it lost in 2019.

Labour would have a 57% chance of retaking Lincoln, if polls are right, with an estimated 16,000 vote majority.

This would enable candidate Hamish Falconer to beat current MP Karl McCartney, who would have a 25% chance. (Other parties make up the remaining percent.)

It also predicts 7000 and 9000 vote margins for Labour in Grimsby and Scunthorpe respectively.

However, veteran Conservative MPs could also be vulnerable if the political winds don’t change by the time of the election.

How the UK would look if a general election was held today | Photo: ElectionMaps.uk

Martin Vickers is predicted to hold Cleethorpes (under new boundaries) by only 700 votes, giving Labour a shot at unseating him.

Gainsborough – represented by Sir Edward Leigh for nearly 40 years – is also expected to be tight, with less than 2000 votes in it.

The Brigg and Goole seat, as well as Grantham and Stamford, could also be seats to watch if Labour do unexpectedly well.

Kier Starmer’s party is currently up by around 18 points in national polls, and set for a landslide victory.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been able to make up ground since taking over from Liz Truss, but will be hoping for a bigger change in fortune over the next 18 months.

A General Election must be called by December 2024 at the latest.

ElectionMaps predicts sweeping change across Labour’s traditional heartlands which Boris Johnson won in 2019.

However, it would be a shock if parts of Lincolnshire which have been blue for decades become competitive. 

Recent anger over asylum seeker housing – including in Skegness hotels and the former RAF Scampton airbase – could become issues during local campaigns.


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